I lost some money yesterday with a long position in CMG. I bought on Tuesday because of the tight consolidation after some encouraging price/volume action of the last weeks. Even though I lost money, it was a good trade because I followed my rules.
After yesterday's action, CMG looks rather like a short than a long. Momentum stocks can decline very rapidly if they fall out of favor and Chipotle might be in such a position. Should weakness continue and the stock moves below $390 in the coming days, I have no problem shorting the stock. $300 offers an attractive price target based on long-term Fibonacci levels, which would be a 30% decline from current levels. CMG is expensive, trading at a generous 53 times trailing earnings and is heavily shorted with 15% of float, so there are others who think the rally could be over.
For comparison, here is the chart of another former momentum leader: GMCR. Not how the Fibonacci levels played out nicely and how relative strength was the key measure to give the sell signal: